Scenario Planning and the Illusion of Control
Founders can't afford to bet it all on getting predictions right
A geopolitical risk firm published a forecast in January ruling out an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. By spring, it had happened.
The Globe and Mail ran a piece this week on the exploding market for corporate risk intelligence: AI-powered observatories, 200-analyst divisions, bespoke scenario planning. The conclusion, buried near the end, is worth sitting with. Sarah Kaplan at Rotman puts it plainly: you have to model your business plan on the assumption that the worst risks are far more likely than you thought.
The problem with this logic is not scenario planning. The problem is the assumption that getting the scenarios right is what keeps you safe.
That assumption was already shaky under VUCA, a model built for a world that was volatile and uncertain, but still predictable enough to share basic assumptions about how it worked. What we are living through now is something different. Jamais Cascio's BANI framework names it more honestly:
Brittle: systems that look solid until a single event exposes the underlying assumptions.
Anxious: when the response to uncertainty is to acquire more tools, more analysts and more forecasts to prolong the illusion of control (and then get the forecast wrong).
Nonlinear: crises that compound one another exponentially rather than adding up predictably.
Incomprehensible: outcomes that exceed the prediction reach of any model, however sophisticated.
The article is written entirely for boards and institutional investors who need to project a sense of control to keep their jobs.
But independent founders have to operate in the same environment with a fraction of the resources and none of the structural cushion. We can't afford to bet it all on getting our predictions right. We need a better way.
The question I keep returning to in Momentum Scaling is not how founders can better predict what comes next. It is how they can build ventures that do not require a stable environment to thrive.
Managing uncertainty is not about prediction. It never was.
Globe and Mail (gift link): https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/665b19f9906b801dbf1a31e1b67b1779445580afba4ce25280f5af8ed14d5bcd/C7MXR3UJBJBCDL54XR45HBJLZU/
Davender’s passion is to guide innovative entrepreneurs in developing the clarity, commitment, confidence and courage to enter, engage and lead their markets in a world that refuses to hold still, by thinking strategically and acting tactically.
Find out more at https://coachdavender.substack.com/about and https://linkedin.com/in/coachdavender